Data Model Generation of State-Backed Networked Threat Groups

Turning the Screws Strategically

The Problem: Hostile States and Highly Networked Non-State Threat Groups Have Developed New Models of Operation

Investigative professionals have developed advanced capabilities to combat threats posed by hostile nations as well as non-state threat groups. These capabilities are the product of decades of experience and all of its associated successes and setbacks. The net result is a professional core of seasoned investigators with field-validated methods and models that have proven remarkably effective from the Cold War period to the present. However, what happens when these two previously separate and distinct domains merge and become interoperable in pursuit of hostile state goals?

While state backing for terrorist groups can be traced back to at least the 1970s, state/non-state merging in other domain areas is a recent development. The abrupt nature of this shift has been generated by rogue states that are attempting to cause damage in target countries (mostly Western democracies) through asymmetric means. Intellectual property theft (especially dual-use technologies), cybercrime, subversion operations, synthetic narcotics trafficking, and insider sabotage within critical industry are some examples of the state/non-state nexus seeking to generate strategic effects without firing a shot.

The strategic concept is to continuously degrade and demoralize an adversary to a point where the need for overt state actions to achieve goals become minimal or even non-existent. A country that is drained of its most advanced dual-use technologies, facing increasing social problems (i.e., synthetic narcotics overdoses and associated disorder), experiencing increasing economic hardship and has serious concerns over the reliability of critical infrastructure in a crisis presents a considerably ‘softer target’.

Firing ballistic missiles results in immediate attribution and a full-spectrum range of consequences. However, there are now new methods for achieving military-style effects in a less dramatic manner that makes specific attribution a more difficult endeavour. This requires hostile nations to harness the networked structures of non-state groups for mutual benefit.